Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Free School - Bitcoin Edition

BTC haters are providing an education for us all on the folly of predicting a currency demise on the strength of the crash and burn of an individual participant. What's going on is an argument over how much of the recent price spike past $1000 was "real".

Take a look at the year chart for Bitcoin. Look beyond the huge price spike to the growth trend that just preceded it.

There are two dips around July and October. Drawing a rough trend line out to doaty off those dips gives me a trend value of about $200. Bitcoin is going to be in trouble if it drops below that longer term support level. There is some level of the recent price spike that is likely legitimate. So how much is it? Nobody knows. That's what the argument is about. What behavior is going to emerge out of people who are potentially willing to invest in bitcoin in the face of real improvements in terms of software, maturity of governance, and changes in ecosystem size?