Success for Obamacare is getting the right numbers and the right mix of signups to overcome the number of people who have lost their insurance plan and get new enrollees that make all the pain and expense worthwhile. Get the numbers wrong enough and we're going to have huge losses in the insurance field and a major hole in the Federal budget. An enrollee is someone who successfully navigates their application through the process and pays their first month's premium.
So, do we actually measure the number of people who have gone through the process all the way through to paying for it? Of course we haven't. The government could have included in the law a requirement for the insurance companies to report to HHS when those premiums came in. That could have been a requirement of one of the enabling regulations so that the IRS doesn't inappropriately assess tax penalties. But nobody did it and as a result, we are in a canoe and all we hear is the waterfall because we're wearing a blindfold. By the time we figure out that we're over the falls, it's too late.